feat(cpp/datascience): CPU stats + MCMC primitives
Nuevo dominio cpp/functions/datascience con primitivas puras CPU para post- proceso de samples Monte Carlo y diagnostico de cadenas MCMC. Diseñadas como gemelas CPU de los kernels GPU (rng pareja con gpu_rng_glsl, MH 1D/ND con mc_metropolis_hastings_gpu) para validar numericamente y para datasets pequeños donde el dispatch GPU no compensa. - rng: xoshiro256++ con uniform / normal (Box-Muller) / below (Lemire) / categorical. Determinista bit-exacto dado seed. - stats_summary: sum (Kahan), mean, var/std (Welford one-pass), min, max, quantile / percentile (R type-7). - autocorr: r(k), ACF, tau_int (Sokal) — diagnostico ACF y ESS. - rhat_ess: Gelman-Rubin clasico y split + ESS basico (multi-chain). - beta_dist: lgamma (Lanczos), beta_pdf, beta_cdf (continued fraction), beta_quantile, mean/var/std — para inferencia Beta-Binomial. - drawdown: max_dd absoluto/pct + underwater series para sesiones simuladas y backtests. - samples_to_grid_2d: binning 2D CPU para alimentar heatmap_cpp_viz / contour_cpp_viz desde samples (x[], y[]). - metropolis_hastings: MH 1D y ND con target log-pdf como std::function (no normalizada). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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#include "datascience/rng.h"
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#include <cmath>
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namespace fn::ds {
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static inline std::uint64_t rotl(std::uint64_t x, int k) {
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return (x << k) | (x >> (64 - k));
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}
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// SplitMix64 step — usado solo para seedear los 4 lanes de xoshiro256++.
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static inline std::uint64_t splitmix64(std::uint64_t& state) {
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state += 0x9E3779B97F4A7C15ULL;
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std::uint64_t z = state;
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z = (z ^ (z >> 30)) * 0xBF58476D1CE4E5B9ULL;
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z = (z ^ (z >> 27)) * 0x94D049BB133111EBULL;
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return z ^ (z >> 31);
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}
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void rng_seed(Rng& r, std::uint64_t seed) {
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if (seed == 0ULL) seed = 0x9E3779B97F4A7C15ULL;
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std::uint64_t s = seed;
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r.s[0] = splitmix64(s);
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r.s[1] = splitmix64(s);
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r.s[2] = splitmix64(s);
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r.s[3] = splitmix64(s);
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}
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// xoshiro256++ (Vigna). 1.24 ns/u64 en x86, supera PractRand 32 TB.
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std::uint64_t rng_u64(Rng& r) {
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const std::uint64_t result = rotl(r.s[0] + r.s[3], 23) + r.s[0];
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const std::uint64_t t = r.s[1] << 17;
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r.s[2] ^= r.s[0];
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r.s[3] ^= r.s[1];
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r.s[1] ^= r.s[2];
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r.s[0] ^= r.s[3];
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r.s[2] ^= t;
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r.s[3] = rotl(r.s[3], 45);
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return result;
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}
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double rng_uniform(Rng& r) {
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// 53 bits superiores -> double en [0, 1).
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return (rng_u64(r) >> 11) * (1.0 / 9007199254740992.0);
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}
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double rng_normal(Rng& r) {
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// Box-Muller. Descarta una de las dos normales (suficientemente rapido
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// para la mayoria de usos; si hace falta cachear la otra, anadir un
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// flag al Rng).
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double u1 = rng_uniform(r);
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if (u1 < 1e-300) u1 = 1e-300;
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double u2 = rng_uniform(r);
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return std::sqrt(-2.0 * std::log(u1)) *
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std::cos(6.28318530717958647692 * u2);
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}
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std::uint64_t rng_below(Rng& r, std::uint64_t n) {
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if (n == 0ULL) return 0ULL;
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// Lemire's method (2019): rejection-sampling sin division en el caso
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// comun. Sesgo nulo.
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std::uint64_t x = rng_u64(r);
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__uint128_t m = static_cast<__uint128_t>(x) * static_cast<__uint128_t>(n);
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std::uint64_t l = static_cast<std::uint64_t>(m);
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if (l < n) {
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std::uint64_t t = (~n + 1ULL) % n; // (-n) mod n
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while (l < t) {
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x = rng_u64(r);
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m = static_cast<__uint128_t>(x) * static_cast<__uint128_t>(n);
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l = static_cast<std::uint64_t>(m);
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}
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}
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return static_cast<std::uint64_t>(m >> 64);
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}
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int rng_categorical(Rng& r, const double* weights, int n) {
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if (n <= 0 || weights == nullptr) return 0;
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double total = 0.0;
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for (int i = 0; i < n; ++i) {
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if (weights[i] > 0.0) total += weights[i];
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}
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if (total <= 0.0) return n - 1;
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double u = rng_uniform(r) * total;
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double acc = 0.0;
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for (int i = 0; i < n; ++i) {
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if (weights[i] > 0.0) {
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acc += weights[i];
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if (u < acc) return i;
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}
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}
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return n - 1;
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}
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} // namespace fn::ds
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